Free from the bipolarity of Cold War international politics that has brought about conflict, mainly based on ideological differences, the world increasingly witnesses the potency of resource-based conflict. One such potential conflict area is scarce fresh water resources. It has been estimated that 1,7 billion people, spread over eighty countries, are suffering water shortages.1 Southern Africa has proved no exception to this global trend. According to the African Development Bank, "... current calculations are that by 2000, South Africa will suffer water stress, Malawi will have moved into absolute water scarcity and Kenya will be facing the prospect of living beyond the present water barrier. By 2025, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe will suffer water stress, Lesotho and South Africa will have moved into absolute water scarcity; and Malawi will have joined Kenya living beyond the present water barrier."2

The problems arising from scarce water resources are compounded by massive population growth. The world's population is expected to grow from 5,3 billion in 1990 to 6,2 billion in the year 2000, and to 8,5 billion in the year 2025.3 In Southern Africa, the annual population growth is expected to average 2,7 per cent over the next five years.4 Increasing population growth rates, within the context of dwindling fresh water resources, raises the prospect of competition for and armed conflict over shared water resources. This takes on ominous proportions if it is considered that, "[o]f the 200 first-order river systems, 150 are shared by 2 nations; and 50 by 10 nations all in all supporting approximately 40% of the world's population two-thirds of whom are located in developing countries."5

Indeed, conflict over scarce fresh water resources have already occurred. Consider here those conflicts between:

• Turkey, Syria and Iraq around the waters of the Euphrates river;
  
  

• the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the waters of the river Nile;
  
  

• the tensions concerning the sharing of the waters of the Colorado river between the United States and Mexico; and
  
  

• in Southern Africa over Zimbabwe's attempt to construct a dam on the Saabi river, thereby reducing the flow of the river downstream to Botswana.6

It is therefore imperative that the people of Southern Africa thoroughly comprehend the implications of the availability of fresh water resources in the region, and the relationship between this and the emerging `new security' debate. It is in this context that this monograph is offered, aiming to act as a catalyst for further debate in the search for answers to these and other questions concerned with human security.

In the first article, Heidi Hudson provides a penetrating analysis of the interrelationship between water and security, and contextualises water scarcity within the theoretical confines of the new security agenda. This is followed by A Conley's lucid account of Southern Africa's water resources. Significant is Conley's conclusion that intensified rivalry and armed conflict need not be the only ways to manage this planet's water resources. He argues that regional co-operation could be the answer to this important issue. In this regard, he draws the attention to the fact that the first protocol in the SADC structure to be finalised is the Protocol on Shared Watercourse Systems in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Region. It gives weight to the role of water the essence of life and prosperity in the lives of every living creature.

ENDNOTES

R T Appleyard, International Migration: Challenge for the Nineties, International Organisation for Migration, Geneva, 1992, p. 83.



African Development Bank, Economic Integration in Southern Africa: Executive Summary, ADB, Harare, 1994, p. 39.



J Romm, Defining National Security: The Nonmilitary Aspects, Council on Foreign Relations Press, New York, 1993, p. 25.



H Solomon & J Cilliers, Sources of Southern African Insecurity and the Quest for Regional Integration, in H Solomon & J Cilliers (eds.), People, Poverty and Peace: Human Security in Southern Africa, IDP Monograph Series, 4, Institute for Defence Policy, Halfway House, May 1996, p. 7.



M Singh, Environmental Security, in M Singh (ed.), Redefining Security in Southern Africa, Centre for History and Economics, King's College, Cambridge, 1995, p. 38.



H Solomon, Towards the 21st Century: A New Global Security Agenda?, IDP Papers, 6, Institute for Defence Policy, Halfway House, June 1996, p. 3.