FEAR OF CRIME

In designing strategies to address the fear of crime, it is important to know whether there are particular areas in Cape Town in which residents feel unsafe. It is also valuable to establish what causes fear of crime, in order to design policies to address it. Feelings of insecurity and high levels of fear of crime have several sources, not least of which is the experience of actual victimisation and the perception that effective assistance will be unlikely (findings which the survey confirms with regard to perceptions of police effectiveness).

The varying risk of victimisation is one of the factors which affects how safe people feel in their living and working environments. But the public's predictions of who is more at risk of victimisation are seldom based on statistical evidence. Instead, these perceptions are influenced by the media (although direct links between fear of crime and media reports are hard to prove), general impressions of the city environment which may have little relation to crime, discussions with friends or family, perceptions of the government's ability to govern, its willingness to address the crime situation and, most importantly, people's actual experience of crime.

It appears that different people feel unsafe in different places in Cape Town. Feelings of 'unsafety' may have a range of implications such as causing people and, by implication, businesses to avoid certain areas. When this happens, there are a host of economic considerations which follow. Crime prevention strategies need to target particular areas and address fears of crime in certain areas which impact on people's daily activities.

People's fear of crime is clearly evidenced in survey findings which reflect those parts of the city that people believe are most unsafe. While some white people (18 per cent) said that the suburbs they live in are the most unsafe, more (27 per cent) perceived themselves as particularly vulnerable in the city centre. Fear of crime in the inner city for these people probably relates to several factors, including actual crime levels: suburbs are comparatively safer than other parts of the city where serious crimes are concerned. Impressions of the inner city formed through the media and general perceptions (often misplaced) of 'disorder' as a result of overcrowding and street hawking, however, also play an important role. Fear of crime in the city centre, based on this package of issues, is nevertheless far less of a problem in Cape Town than in Durban and Johannesburg.

For people living in other parts of Cape Town, fear of crime is much more likely to be based on the reality of actual victimisation. Significantly, the vast majority of Africans and coloured people believe the areas in which they live are the most unsafe. Ninety two per cent of coloured people identified the former coloured suburbs as presenting the greatest risk, and 71 per cent of Africans had similar views of informal settlements.

Perceptions that the neighbourhoods in which respondents live are the most dangerous, are supported by other survey findings. In Cape Town, as in other cities, people said they feel the most vulnerable to crime in their areas after dark, with 41 per cent of people reporting to the survey that they felt 'very unsafe'. During the day, safety levels increase, but many citizens (43 per cent) are likely to feel only 'fairly safe' as opposed to 'very safe'.

Figure 23: Parts of Cape Town regarded as most unsafe by race



When the responses of those who had been victimised by crime were compared to those who had not by the time of day crimes occurred, there was very little difference, although victims were slightly more fearful both during the day and after dark. Victims were more likely to demonstrate more extreme rather than moderate fears, i.e. after dark they were more inclined to feel very unsafe compared to non-victims who felt a bit unsafe after dark. It is perhaps surprising that victims' and non-victims' fear of crime is not more differentiated, however, this probably relates to general levels of fear of crime across Cape Town.

Figure 24: Feelings of safety in Cape Town of victims and non-victims by time of day



Once again, another significant variable, with regard to the fear of crime and feelings of safety after dark is race. Fifty per cent of Africans and 32,6 per cent of victims living in the former African areas feel very unsafe at night. The most fearful group in Cape Town are coloured people, with 53 per cent of people living in the former coloured suburbs feeling very unsafe after dark. Whites are more likely to feel a bit unsafe after dark (49,5 per cent), compared to Africans and coloured people of which the majority felt very unsafe in their areas after dark. This finding correlates with the perceptions of the most unsafe places in Cape Town, indicated by Africans and coloured people as the places where they lived. Only 16,1 per cent of whites felt very unsafe after dark, and 54,2 per cent of victims living in the former white areas felt a bit unsafe after dark. A much higher percentage of whites (27,7 per cent) felt fairly safe during the day.

Figure 25: Feelings of safety in Cape Town after dark by race



Age is a significant variable when explaining fear of crime and perceptions of safety. Arguments have been that older people may demonstrate a fear of crime which is disproportionate to their actual risk of victimisation. The survey provided some interesting results in the case of Cape Town. The age group between 21 and 35 years, who constituted 37 per cent of the weighted sample, was victimised the most in Cape Town over a five-year period (38,8 per cent). This age group, however, does not feel the most unsafe. Across crime types, those between 16 and 20 years (15 per cent of the weighted sample) were victimised by 14,5 per cent of crime over five years. This age group, which is not disproportionately victimised across crime type, is the most likely to feel 'very unsafe' after dark (46,5 per cent) and the least likely to feel 'very safe' (7,4 per cent). Since this group is the most likely to be involved in or aware of gang-related activities, this may be an explanatory factor for their high levels of fear. Gang-related crimes are the third most feared crime type among this age group (17,6 per cent). Those who are older than 60 years are the least likely to feel 'very safe' (8,1 per cent) after dark, and slightly more likely to feel a 'bit unsafe' (38,4 per cent) rather than 'very unsafe' (37 per cent). The levels of fear of crime are generally high across all age groups. However, the youngest (16 to 20 years - 78,4 per cent) and the oldest groups (60+ years - 75,4 per cent) are likely to feel the most unsafe, with those between 21 to 35 years (73,7 per cent), and between 36 and 60 years feeling the least unsafe (67 per cent).

These high levels of fear may be related to perceptions that the problem of crime is getting worse in Cape Town. When asked whether crime levels had increased, decreased or stayed the same, compared to previous years, most respondents (77 per cent) said that crime had increased, while 7 per cent believed it had decreased and 16 per cent believed it had remained unchanged.

Figure 26: Perceptions of crime levels in Cape Town compared to previous years



Views on the issue differed, however. Different race groups had similar views, although coloured people (14,5 per cent) were more inclined to think crime levels had stayed the same, compared to previous years. Seventeen per cent of Africans and whites said that crime levels had stayed the same, compared to previous years. Generally, perceptions of crime levels were similar across races. It is not surprising that those who have been victimised, are slightly more inclined to believe that crime has increased. Respondents who have been victimised by crime are more inclined (79,2 per cent) to believe that crime had increased in their area. Men, who constitute 49 per cent of the sample population are disproportionately victimised which may incline them to think that crime had increased (79,5 per cent). There were no significant variations across age groups or education levels, although those with no schooling (20,3 per cent) and those with matric (18 per cent) were the most likely to think that crime had stayed the same.

The perceptions of changing crime levels by residents of different areas in Cape Town were also considered.

Figure 27: Perceptions of crime levels in Cape Town compared to previous years by area



Residents of the former coloured areas in the northern suburbs were the most likely to think that crime levels had increased (87,4 per cent). One explanation may be that, during the week of the survey, several gang-related incidents of violence occurred in the greater Cape Town area, particularly in northern areas such as Manenberg. In the surrounding Cape Flats area, residents mainly thought that crime levels had decreased (15,7 per cent), while most people in the former white northern suburbs of Cape Town believed the problem had remained the same (23 per cent).

An analysis of actual changes in crime levels reveals that, while some of these perceptions are accurate, generalisations are difficult. Victim surveys can only measure changing crime rates accurately when conducted at regular intervals. However, victims themselves reported the number of crimes that happened to them in 1996 and 1997 (see figure 4).

On this basis, crime levels experienced by those victims that were interviewed, were compared. Levels of property crime reported by victims have declined marginally between 1996 and 1997. However, views that the problem is getting worse may be based on increases in the levels of certain violent crimes, such as assault and robbery, and unchanged rates of hijacking and murder. Indeed, these are the crime types most likely to receive wide media coverage and increase the fear of crime. This, along with the widely publicised resurgence in gang violence and several other violent robberies during January 1998 in Cape Town, explain perceptions that crime generally is increasing.37

Respondents (both victims and non-victims) were asked whether one specific type of crime occur the most in their areas, and what type of crime they are the most scared of.

Across areas, burglary (47,9 per cent) is considered to be the most frequent crime type occurring in people's areas, followed by gang-related crimes (19,2 per cent), murders (10,2 per cent), robberies (9,9 per cent), rapes (5,6 per cent) drug-related crimes (4,6 per cent), child abuse (1,3 per cent) and hijackings (1,1 per cent). When considering that burglary is the most frequent crime type occurring in Cape Town and that hijacking is the lowest crime type reported to the survey, it appears as if people's perceptions of crime occurring in their area is not that far removed from reality. This suggests that citizens of Cape Town across the city are in touch with the reality of crime in their areas, while more general perceptions about increases or decreases in crime are less accurate.

There appears to be agreement across races that burglary is the most frequent crime type to occur in Cape Town, particularly in the former white suburbs (60,9 per cent). However, the next most frequent crime type, namely gang-related crimes (19,2 per cent) sees substantial variations across race, where coloured people are the most likely to think crimes occurring in their areas are gang-related (24 per cent), followed by Africans (18,6 per cent) and whites (11,5 per cent). Because of the prevalence of gangs known to be operating in particular parts of Cape Town, the victimisation survey sought to elicit answers from respondents on whether gangs operated in the area in which they lived, and whether victims perceived their incidents to be gang-related. It is probably characteristic of crime in the Western Cape that 54 per cent of respondents said that there were gangs operating in their areas. The manner in which this question was phrased, however, left the answer vague. It is unclear whether respondents were referring to gangs living in their areas or simply operating there. Significantly, 32,3 per cent of respondents did not think there were gangs in their areas, while 13,9 per cent did not know.

Respondents living in the former coloured northern suburbs were the most likely to think that there were gangs operating in their areas (96,7 per cent), while those living in the former white southern suburbs were the least likely to think so (14,6 per cent). Gang-related crimes are believed to be the most frequent in the former coloured suburbs (21,8 per cent), while residents of informal areas and the former white suburbs appear to think that such crimes occur at a similar frequency in these areas. While the common perception is that gangs are more prevalent in coloured areas than in African areas, it is surprising that 81 per cent of respondents living in African areas state that there are gangs in their areas. Township residents see gang-related crimes as less of a frequent crime type on a par with rape (7 per cent) and, after burglary, are the most likely to believe that murder (16,3 per cent) affects their areas the most. The survey did not ask how serious respondents perceived the gangs to be in their particular areas. While there may be gangs in African areas, it is commonly thought that they are more expressive rather than acquisitive - they are not yet involved in serious organised crime. Their focus seems to be more on music and fun, with criminal activities limited to petty crime and the occasional fight with opposing gangs. Since mid-1997, youth gangs in the African townships have become a more frequent phenomenon.

Whites (1,6 per cent) do not believe murder to be the most frequent crime occurring in their areas, while Africans and coloured people do. This perception is accurate as murders are far more likely to occur in the former coloured and African areas. It is confirmed by the fact that residents of informal areas, after burglaries, are the most likely to feel victimised by murder (19,8 per cent), whereas residents in the former white suburbs do not perceive this crime to occur much in their areas (2 per cent). Robbery or mugging is believed to occur most frequently in informal areas (13 per cent) and former white suburbs (11,7 per cent). That rape and child abuse are seen as a frequent crime type affecting Africans in their areas is noteworthy. Coloured people (8,1 per cent) are far more likely to see drug-related crimes as an issue in the areas in which they live compared to other races, and these crimes are perceived to affect mainly those living in the former coloured suburbs (7,6 per cent).

Figure 28: Perceptions of the most frequent crime type occurring in area by settlement type



Respondents were asked what they feared the most about crime, ranging from loss of life, physical injury, loss of property, sexual violence, and sexual intimidation.

Figure 29: Most feared crime type occurring in area by race



While burglary may be the most frequent crime type occurring in all areas, unsurprisingly, loss of life is the most feared by people living in Cape Town (42,3 per cent), especially those living in informal settlements. This is followed by physical injury (31,6 per cent), sexual violence (14,1 per cent), loss of property (9 per cent) and sexual intimidation (3,1 per cent).

There are very few differences in what people fear about crime when tested by victimisation. Non-victims are slightly more likely to fear loss of property and loss of life than victims. This is a surprising finding and possibly indicates high levels of fear of crime across the board, for both violent and property crimes. Victims are significantly more fearful of sexual intimidation than non-victims.

The group older than 60 years is the most fearful of loss of life (46,9 per cent) and physical injury (35,4 per cent), while those between 16 and 20 years are the most fearful of sexual violence (16,8 per cent) among all the age groups - they are the most vulnerable - and are the least fearful of physical injury (27,4 per cent). Those most fearful of loss of property among all age groups, are between 35 and 60 years old, possibly having the most to lose (10,5 per cent), while those over 60 years are the least fearful of loss of property among all age groups (5,3 per cent).

The fear of loss of life for women (30,7 per cent) is almost matched by their fear of physical injury (28,6 per cent) and sexual violence (25,1 per cent). Not surprisingly, women are far more fearful of rape occurring in their areas (30,9 per cent), compared to men (4,5 per cent). Women are also more likely to fear the loss of property (11,5 per cent) than men (6,5 per cent) who are the most fearful of loss of life (53,7 per cent) and physical injury (34,7 per cent).

The survey also attempted to gather information on public perceptions of gang involvement in crimes that respondents had been victims of or had witnessed.

Figure 30: Perceptions of gangs in neighbourhood by geographic area


Forty per cent of murders, 41 per cent of robberies, 28 per cent of assaults and 20 per cent of sexual assaults were believed to be gang-related. Of those men who were victims of assault, 42,6 per cent believed that the crime was gang-related, while this was the perception of only 7 per cent of women.

Perceptions of gang-related crimes are important as they call attention to the need to regard gang-related crimes as a priority, especially in addressing the fear of crime. When asked about the most feared crime type in a particular area, gang-related crimes featured in the four most feared crimes, with male respondents slightly more fearful of such crimes (15,5 per cent) than women (13 per cent). It is to be expected that people will have dissimilar fears about different crimes, depending on their vulnerability to such crimes.

Figure 31: Most fearful aspect of crime by area of residence



The questions arises whether victims who perceive the crime to be gang-related are less likely to report it to the police. In considering assault, the following picture emerges: 38,7 per cent of assault victims reported such incidents to the police. In cases where victims perceived the crimes to be gang-related, 43,8 per cent reported the incidents, compared to only 38,3 per cent who reported them when they did not regard them as gang-related. As such, the fear of intimidation by gangs does not necessarily appear to affect reporting when it comes to assault. In fact, gang-related crimes may be perceived as more serious, a factor which would encourage reporting. In all, 92,7 per cent of murders were reported to the police. In cases where the murder was perceived to be gang-related, 88,6 per cent reported the incident compared to 95 per cent who reported it when it was not thought to be gang-related. Overall, 47 per cent of robberies or muggings were reported to the police. In cases where the robbery or mugging was perceived to be gang-related, 36 per cent reported such incidents compared to 45,9 per cent who reported them when they did not regard them as gang-related. It appears that reporting rates may be influenced by the fear of intimidation by gangs when it comes to murder and robbery or mugging.

Figure 32: Perceptions of whether crimes were gang-related